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Friday, 25 May 2018

Fed Officials signal June hike and caution on inflation progress 26 May 2018



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Inflation rose at the committee’s targeted pace of a 2% annual rate in March, yet officials were cautious on whether that was sustainable given that prices had been mostly below that goal for the past six years.

Federal Reserve officials signaled they are set to raise interest rates at their meeting in June, but sent no clear message on whether they’d hike one or two more times this year following that move.

U.S. central bankers said “it would likely soon be appropriate” to increase the benchmark policy rate, according to a record of their May 1-2 meeting released Wednesday, confirming investor expectations for a move next month. Beyond that, officials “expressed a range of views on the amount of further policy firming that would likely be required.”

“It seems like they couldn’t agree on anything beyond the next meeting,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in New York. “They’re really, truly going to be taking this one meeting at a time.”

Inflation rose at the committee’s targeted pace of a 2% annual rate in March, yet officials were cautious on whether that was sustainable given that prices had been mostly below that goal for the past six years.

“It was noted that it was premature to conclude that inflation would remain at levels around 2%, especially after several years in which inflation had persistently run below the committee’s 2% objective,” the minutes said.  The commentary was somewhat unusual given the data in hand: unemployment at the lowest level in 17 years, wages gradually moving higher and the economic expansion apparently on a firm footing.

“There was very little concern about overheating and inflation overshooting too much,” said Julia Coronado, president of Macropolicy Perspectives LLC in New York. “There was more concern that the recent progress cannot be sustained.”

March forecasts by the Federal Open Market Committee showed the committee split between three and four hikes this year, excluding three outliers. That outlook will be updated at the FOMC’s June 12-13 meeting, after which Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference.

As noted in their May 2 statement, which inserted a second reference to their “symmetric” inflation target, the committee said it wouldn’t be concerned if inflation overshot the target.

A temporary period of inflation “modestly above 2% would be consistent with the committee’s symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations,” the minutes said.

“They could have sounded a lot more optimistic about the economy, and confirmed expectations for four increases this year, but they didn’t do that,” said Michael Hanson, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. “This is a committee that feels like it has been head-faked one too many times on inflation.”

Since the May meeting, the dollar has continued to strengthen, oil prices are higher, and 30-year mortgage rates have also moved up. Tightening U.S. financial conditions have been felt sharply in some emerging markets, with Argentine and Turkish currencies retreating sharply.

Fed officials have little foresight into what exiting from post-crisis, ultra-easy monetary policy will mean for the U.S. economy -- let alone the rest of the world -- and that may be one reason why they are reluctant to look beyond the next meeting.

“The closer you get to a normal monetary policy, the less agreement you’re going to have about continuing to slog along,” Stanley said. “I’m a little bit surprised that that discussion seems to be drawing so much disagreement already.”


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Thursday, 24 May 2018

Asia opens lower; Bank of Baroda, Idea, Sun Pharma in focus - 25 MAY 2018

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Indian Indices:                                     The Nifty50 which started higher gathered momentum in the last one hour of the trading session on Thursday and closed above its crucial resistance level of 10,500 on Thursday. Index saw some value buying at lower levels along with short covering which helped Nifty to reclaim 10,500 on closing basis which is a positive sign. The Nifty50 which opened at 10,464 slipped to an intraday low of 10,419 before bouncing back above 10,500. It hit an intraday high of 10,535 before closing the day at 10,513, up 83 points. The Nifty Bank index closed up 1.29 percent at 26,016.80 on Thursday. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 25,759.1, followed by 25,501.4. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 26,173.8, followed by 26,330.8.

Global Market:
·       Asian markets- Asian markets are lower today as Japanese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Nikkei 225 is off 0.09% while the Hang Seng is down 0.44%. The Shanghai Composite is not trading.

·       US Markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 75.05 points, or 0.3 percent, to 24,811.76, the S&P 500 lost 5.53 points, or 0.20 percent, to 2,727.76 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.53 points, or 0.02 percent, to 7,424.43.

·       European markets- European markets finished lower today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is down 0.94% while London's FTSE 100 is off 0.92% and France's CAC 40 is lower by 0.31%.


Major Headlines of the day:

·        Gujarat Alkali Q4 YoY: Profit jumps sharply to Rs 221.1 crore versus Rs 87.1 crore; revenue from operations rose to Rs 697.3 crore from Rs 531.3 crore.

·        Cummins Q4 YoY: Profit up 1.7 percent at Rs 161.2 crore versus Rs 158.5 crore; revenue up 4.1 percent at Rs 1,233.2 crore versus Rs 1,184.4 crore.

·        GSK Pharma: Q4 net profit down 6.3 percent at Rs 105.6 crore.

·        Kaveri Seed Company: Board approves buyback of equity shares.

·        United Breweries Q4: Net profit at Rs 90.9 crore and revenue at Rs 1,474 crore.
.
·        United Spirits Q4: Net profit at Rs 211 cror and revenue at Rs 2173.3 crore.

·        Pidilite Q4: Net profit at Rs 247.5 crore and revenue at Rs 1,485.3 crore.

·        PNC Infratech declared lowest bidder for the project of Rs 1,738 crore.


Trend in FII flows:The FIIs were Net Value of Rs  -701.93 in the cash segment THURSDAY while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 1480.51 as per the provisional figures.



TODAY ON EARNING FRONT:-   Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Bank of Baroda, Cadila Healthcare, Page Industries, IDBI Bank, Power Finance Corporation, Sundaram Finance, NBCC India, Max Financial, Karur Vysya Bank, Jagran prakashan, BEML and India Cements.



Securities in Ban For Trade Date 25-MAY-2018 :-


1.  BEML,

2.  DHFL,

3.  Jet Airways,

4.  Jain Irrigation Systems and

5.  Reliance Communications


Get more details here:-




* Investment & Trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647

Wednesday, 23 May 2018

Bajaj Electricals Q4 net profit down 81% on one-time hit from loans to Starlite JV - 24 May 2018

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The company took a hit of Rs 89.4 crore due to an exceptional item


Bajaj Electricals posted an 81 percent drop in its March quarter standalone net profit at Rs 7.3 crore YoY missing estimates because of a one-time hit of Rs 89.4 crore from loans given to its joint venture with Starlite Lighting.

The company had posted net profit of Rs 38.42 crore in the fourth quarter of FY17. A Reuters poll of equity analysts had estimated net profit to rise by 50 percent to Rs 57.6 crore in the fourth quarter.

In its results statement, the company said that it has re-assessed the recoverability of its investments and loans provided to Starlite Lighting Limited. Consequently, it has impaired it fully in both standalone as well as consolidated financial results and disclosed as an exceptional item.

This decision has been taken by Bajaj Electricals after the reduction in the compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) business and future outlook, according to their statement.

The total income saw a 26.3 percent jump YoY to Rs 1,628.82 crore in Q4. In terms of the segment revenue, consumer products saw a 5.5 percent increase in revenue YoY to Rs 644.64 crore. Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) segment saw a jump of 44.1 percent YoY in revenue to Rs 961.48 crore in Q4.

The company announced that Anant Bajaj has been elevated as the Managing Director of Bajaj Electricals.

The board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 3.50 per share, subject to approval of shareholders.

Shekhar Bajaj, Chairman and Managing Director, Bajaj Electricals said that the benefit of Range and Reach Expansion Programme (RREP) is evident from the topline and bottomline growth in consumer products segment, which is driven by strong demand for LED and few other products.

"The RREP rollout in J&K, Himachal Pradesh and North-East states is in progress and is expected to be completed by end September 2018," he added.

RREP refers to a programme wherein the sales staff is evaluated on the number of outlets and the number of stock unit covered.

An Edelweiss Securities report had said that the company’s consumer durables segment is expected to grow 5 percent as they launch new products to gain back its lost market share.


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Tuesday, 22 May 2018

CAPITALSTARS OPENING BELL - 23 May 2018


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SENSEX DOWN 49 @ 34602
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Monday, 21 May 2018

Nifty likely to open flat, Asia opens lower; SBI, IOC, Cipla in focus - 22 MAY 2018



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Indian Indices:                               

The Nifty50 is expected to open flat-to-negative on Tuesday following muted trend seen in other Asian markets. The index closed 79 points lower at 10,516 on Monday. Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 27 points, or 0.26 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,515 on the Singaporean Stock Exchange. Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 27 points, or 0.26 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,515 on the Singaporean Exchange.


Global Market:

• Asian markets- The Nikkei 225 Index is presently unchanged. The stock markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed at this time.

• US Markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 298.2 points, or 1.21 percent, to 25,013.29, the S&P 500 gained 20.04 points, or 0.74 percent, to 2,733.01, and the Nasdaq Composite added 39.70 points, or 0.54 percent, to 7,394.04

• European markets- European markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The FTSE 100 gained 1.03% and the CAC 40 rose 0.41%. The DAX lost 0.28%.


Major Headlines of the day:

• DHFL to raise up to Rs 12K cr; NCD issue opens tomorrow

• Just Dial Q4: Net profit was up 53% at Rs 39 crore and revenue was 10.3% at Rs 200.5 crore

• Astrazeneca Pharma Q4: Net profit was at Rs 3.2 crore against the loss of Rs 9.6 crore

• Mahanagar Gas Q4: Net Profit rose 5% at Rs 105 crore and revenue was 11.7% at Rs 587 crore

• DLF Q4: Net profit was up 70.5% at Rs 243.3 crore and Revenue was down 38% at Rs 1,377.7 crore

• Motilal Oswal Q4: Net Profit rose 64% at Rs 147.6 crore and Revenue was up 42.8% at Rs 752.1 crore

• Globus Spirits Q4: Net profit was down at Rs 1.4 crore and Revenue was at Rs 424.1 crore

Trend in FII flows:-  

The FIIs were Net Value of Rs  -496.03 in the cash segment MONDAY while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 1190.56 as per the provisional figures.


TODAY ON EARNING FRONT:-   BOSCH, L&T TECHNOLOGIES, DR REDDYS LAB, SYMPHONY, BATA INDIA, BATA FORGE, CIPLA, DHANUKA AGRITEC, VIP INDUSTRIES, SONATA, HPCL, SBI, KOICL, IOC, ALL CARGO.


Securities in Ban For Trade Date 22-MAY-2018 :- 

1. Balrampur Chini, 
2. DHFL, 
3. Jet Airways, 
4. Just Dial, 
5. PC Jeweller, 
6. Reliance Communications, and 
7. Wockhardt  

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Sunday, 20 May 2018

OPENING BELL @Capitalstars - 21 May 2018

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SENSEX UP  17 @ 4865
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TREND BEARISH
RES2: 10740
RES 1:10690
SUP1:10530
SUP2:10455

CS BANK NIFTY FUTURES (MAY ) OVERVIEW

TREND BEARISH
RES 2: 26285
RES 1: 26185
SUP1: 25800
SUP2: 25740


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Friday, 18 May 2018

Indian Signing Foundational Agreements with US Would Broaden Defence Relationship - 19 May 2018



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Ahead of her visit to India next week, Tina Kaidanow, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, told a group of reporters that it is important for Indian officials to understand these foundation agreements because it allows them to do so much more.


Noting that India and the United States are currently having discussion on a wide variety of state-of-the-art military hardware, a senior US official today insisted that New Delhi signing the "foundational agreements" with it would broaden the scope and potential of bilateral defense relationship.

Ahead of her visit to India next week, Tina Kaidanow, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, told a group of reporters that it is important for Indian officials to understand these foundation agreements because it allows them to do so much more.

"These are the kinds of things that we conclude with all of our friends and allies. It broadens the scope of the potential for the defence relationship," she said.

"Our hope is that ... the Indian government has the sovereign right to decide obviously ... but for all these agreements that we can come to a good understanding because that allows us to do so much more in the defence space," Kaidanow said in response to a question.

India-US bilateral defence trade has risen from near zero to USD 15 billion since 2008. India is projected to spend billions on military modernisation over the next decade. Her talks in India will focus on expanding the security cooperation while furthering opportunities for American industry.

Referring to the Lockheed-offer to relocate its F-16 manufacturing base to India under "Make in India", she said a lot of what the two countries are talking about here is indeed in the co-production, co-development arena.

"My hope is that the Indian government can come to some relevant decisions in the not so distant future," she said.

While bilateral defence trade figure of USD 15 billion is very compelling, but increasing this figure will hinge on not only how the two countries agree to sign foundational agreements, but also to come to an understanding on the contracts and all the other kinds of things that have to happen as a function of concluding some of these deals.

"That's the reason for a trip like mine is to see how far we can further some of those efforts," the senior US official said in response to a question.

The scope of India-US defence trade relationship has expanded fairly dramatically over the last decade and the Trump administration would like to see that expand even further.

"We consider the Indians to be important partners for us," she said adding that the US is currently engaged with India in a "very good, very productive, very robust" conversation on a whole host of things that they might choose to acquire from Washington at some point.

Much recently, a US team was in India to look at some of these things and to talk more with their Indian counterparts, she noted.

When asked about India's interest in armed drones and some of the other high-tech military hardware, Kaidanow said the US is still in the process of trying to discern exactly what their requirements are and then how it can provide the right tactical equipment that will meet those requirements.

"Part of this will be not just our decision but also the Indian government's decision as to what they procure," she said.

"We are having a full conversation on the entire array of things that India might be interested in. Nothing is necessarily precluded. It's just a function of what meets the requirements and what we can provide to meet the necessary requirements," Kaidanow said.


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